A question for the mathematicians here ...

  • I have a question for mathematicians or anyone who is familiar with graphs, algorithms and functions.


    It's about a question I've been asking myself for years:

    When should I sell my slightly older 2007 997.1 Porsche so that the maintenance costs do not increase exponentially and reach a level that is no longer manageable? (Leaving Porsche love aside, because love often prevents you from letting go, even though it would make rational sense to do so)

    Looking at it naively, I would like to have a graph or a kind of "break-even" curve on which I can read: "Okay, when the 997.1 has reached its fifteenth year of life, it's no longer worth doing any more services and repairs, better sell it!"

    For reasons (variables) such as:


    • Spare parts are then much harder to come by and have become far too expensive
    • Fewer and fewer workshops are familiar with the model
    • The increase in the value of the model is not high enough to cushion the repairs to some extent
    • The model is more likely to require more expensive repairs after a certain number of kilometers.

      etc. There are certainly more reasons that can be depicted in the graph.


    If you were to put all these probabilities into a function or algorithm, you could certainly obtain an age range in which it makes sense, objectively speaking, to sell the car. And it might then make more sense to buy the newer model.

    It would be best if you could also enter the following things in this graph: "Repairs are painless up to 5000€", "Have upgraded the model with 7000€ in extras", "Accident-free", "Swiss-Wax treated" etc. :kwink:

    Can the whole thing be represented mathematically? Or would that be nonsense?

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  • I only understand the station😣😣

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    991.1 GTS Cabrio (7.2015) - verkauft

    718 Boxster GTS 4.0 - verkauft

    992 GTS Cabrio ab 17.7.2023

  • That sounds to me like something you would use a Monte Carlo simulation for. You can use different probability functions for different variables.

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  • Monte Carlo and Excel template from Risk Management. It's certainly available to download for shares etc.


    I've been using it for years in our company, but it's very specifically tailored to our needs.

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    Mittfünfziger und gerade dabei, so langsam das Leben zu entschleunigen :) :)